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三大问题暗示伊利今年并不太平 后市依然看好
2018-08-17 15:15 新浪财经
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新浪财经讯 伊利今年以来股价不断走低,跌幅不接连跑输行业和大盘,伊利到底怎么了,三大问题暗示今年伊利或不太平。

  一、伊利股价今年来跑输行业和大盘

image

  2018年以来,伊利在1月16日冲上历史高点,报价高达35.93元,当时伊利市值高达2184亿元。此后股价不断向下,截至月26日收盘,伊利已经出现周线5连阴,伊利股价现为27.3元,市值1659亿元,2个月蒸发高达500亿。考虑到伊利17年大涨90%以及18年以来市场震荡大市,伊利走低似乎情有可原,但是伊利近3月远远跑输行业和大盘,近1月也远远跑输行业和大盘,今日也同样跑输行业和大盘,这就不禁让人有所疑虑。

  二、“聪明”资金大幅撤离,持股不断减少

image

  境外资金今年以来持股比例不断下降,从2018年1月18的10.12%一度减持不足9%,最新数据显示,3月23日港股通资金持股9.03%。

  三、伊利年报推迟一月引质疑

  另一个令人疑问的问题是伊利股份年报本应于3月31日发布,却推迟于4月27日发布。对于年报推迟发布的原因,伊利股份董秘办相关人员对表示:“伊利股份2017年年报的确出现了推迟,将在2018-08-17公布。”对于具体原因,该工作人员则表示:“因为做不完,所以会推迟。

  对于年报推迟是否因业绩亏损所致,有分析人士表示:“伊利股份年报数据应该不会太差。到底基于什么推迟,市场也在猜测。”

  中国食品产业评论员朱丹蓬对界面新闻记者表示:“伊利在2017年前三季度整体表现比较符合预期,这一块包括公司内部预期,券商预期都达到了。但是正常应该是3月底出年报,现在推迟到4月,可能会有大动作。股价下滑也属于阶段性下滑,但是年报推迟有一些奇怪。”

  中金公司预计,伊利股份全年液态奶和奶粉收入增速将达到11.5%、17.0%,多家券商也表示伊利股份盈利能力能够持续向上提升,业绩增速会加快。因此,从业绩情况来看,亏损导致财报延误的可能性并不大

  业绩靓丽,伊利未来依然看好

  根据伊利股份2017年三季度报表,期内营业收入为521.3亿元,较上年同期上涨13.51%。归属于上市公司股东净利润为49.37亿元,较上年同期上涨12.47%。现金流方面,期内经营活动产生的现金流量净额为67.16亿元,较上年同期同比减少45.40%。从单季度来看,2017年第三季度,伊利股份营业收入达190.6亿元,第三季度净利润8.84亿元,单季度营收净利润均双双上涨。

image

  据wind一致预测,伊利股份2017年营收高达680亿元,同比增12%;核心利润70亿,归属母公司净利润达65亿,扣非净利再创新高。2017年业绩虽未公布,但有望继续向好。

  都家券商公司继续看好伊利股价,最高看44元,以最高价计,伊利依然有61%的升值空间。

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责任编辑:张海营

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